摘　要：变压器是电力系统的重要设备,变压器油中溶解的故障特征气体体积分数是其进行绝缘故障诊断的重要依据.变压器油中气体体积分数的预测是周期性测试的重要补充.应用灰色多变量模型,对变压器油中溶解的5种主要特征气体,即氢气、甲烷、乙烷、乙烯和乙炔建立了MCM(1,5)模型,充分考虑了各种气体之间的相互影响,克服了常用预测方法在预测时只考虑某个特征参数或单独考虑几个特征参数发展变化的不足.通过预测实例分析,将MGM(1,5)模型的计算结果与相应GM(1,1)模型的计算结果比较,验证了该模型的准确性和有效性.
关键词：故障特征气体;灰色多变量模型;预测
分类号：TM762　文献标识码：A
文章编号：1004-9649(2007)03-0053-03

Concentration prediction of fault characteristic gases in power transformer oil

XIAO Yan-cai　 CHEN Xiu-hai　

作者简介：肖燕彩(1972-),女,河北献县人,博士研究生,副教授,从事检测技术与故障诊断方面的研究及教学工作.E-mail:ycxiao@bjtu.edu.cn
作者单位：肖燕彩（北京交通大学,机械与电子控制工程学院,北京,100044）　
　　　　　 陈秀海（北京电力公司,北京,100031）　

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