摘　要：中长期电价的预测无论是对于市场监管政策的制定,还是对于大用户和发电商的投资规划,都具有极其重要的意义.影响中长期电价的因素比较复杂,历史电价数据分布混乱增加了一般回归电价预测建模的难度.提出了一种基于最小最大概率回归方法的电力市场中期电价预测的新模型.在分析最小最大概率机(MPM)及其用于回归原理的基础上,使用最小最大概率回归(MPMR)方法对不同的训练样本集进行训练,并计算出预测期的预测值,取得了比较好的预测结果.训练样本的分割使中期电价预测模型更加准确.美国加州现货电能量市场的实例数据验证了所建模型及方法的有效性.
关键词：市场清算电价;中长期电价预测;最小最大概率机;回归模型
分类号：TM715　文献标识码：A
文章编号：1004-9649(2007)03-0001-05

The mid-term price forecasting model in electricity market using MPMR

SHEN Xiu-wen　 WU Yao-wu　 XIONG Xin-yin　 LOU Su-hua　 HE Jia　

作者简介：沈秀汶(1981-),女,福建龙岩人,硕士研究生,从事电力市场电价预测及电力系统规划研究.E-mail:wenziyaya5611@163.com
作者单位：沈秀汶（华中科技大学,电气学院,湖北,武汉,430074）　
　　　　　 吴耀武（华中科技大学,电气学院,湖北,武汉,430074）　
　　　　　 熊信银（华中科技大学,电气学院,湖北,武汉,430074）　
　　　　　 娄素华（华中科技大学,电气学院,湖北,武汉,430074）　
　　　　　 何佳（华中科技大学,电气学院,湖北,武汉,430074）　

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